In the world of rugby league, the art of kicking is a strategic dance, and the best place to take an attacking kick is a question that has intrigued many a coach and player. I, as an avid fan and analyst, have delved into the numbers to uncover the secrets behind this seemingly simple yet crucial aspect of the game. So, where is the sweet spot for an attacking kick? Is it closer to the line or the sideline? And what does the data reveal about the best places to aim for? Let's explore these questions and more, with a healthy dose of personal commentary and analysis.
The Numbers Speak
First, let's establish the facts. Since 2020, I've analyzed every kick taken inside 40 meters, examining whether it resulted in a try directly following the kick. The results are in, and they paint an interesting picture. A try is scored from an attacking kick on 8.9% of attempts, with an average of 20 kicks per game. This percentage remains relatively consistent across seasons, with a slight dip in 2026 possibly due to the threat of a disruptor penalty.
Now, let's zoom in on the distance from the line. The closer you are to the line, the higher the likelihood of scoring. Kicks starting from 30-40 meters out convert 3.4% into tries, while those from 20-30 meters out convert 7.1%. The numbers skyrocket to 12.2% for kicks taken from 10-20 meters out, and an impressive 14.5% for kicks taken inside 10 meters. Interestingly, the majority of kicks (29%) come from 30-40 meters out, followed by 22.3% from 20-30 meters and 34.1% from 10-20 meters. Just 14.6% of kicks are taken within ten meters of the line.
The Width Factor
Now, let's consider the width of the field. Does it play a role in the conversion rate? Interestingly, the distribution of kicks and tries is relatively steady across the field, with most kicks taken around the tramlines and the middle of the field. The conversion rate fluctuates slightly at the far edges, but the overall pattern remains consistent.
The Heat Maps
To visualize this, I've created heat maps of attacking kick locations since 2020. The first map shows the locations where kicks are started, with most occurring around the tramlines. The second map reveals the locations where kicks result in tries, with a higher density around 10-15 meters out and a more even distribution across the field.
The End of the Kick
Now, let's look at the end point of the kicks. Most kicks are aimed outside the tramlines, with a significant portion ending in the in-goal area. Nearly 40% of kicks that result in tries have an end point inside the in-goal area, while only 23.5% are aimed past the try line. This inefficiency highlights the importance of aiming for the in-goal area when the intent is to score a try.
Team-Specific Insights
Finally, let's take a look at team-specific data. The Roosters, for instance, excel at creating aerial contests over the try line due to their wingers' abilities. Conservative teams, on the other hand, may opt for a more cautious approach, letting opponents catch uncontested kicks in the corner. The Bulldogs, for example, have struggled to convert kicks into tries, with Matt Burton averaging the lowest number of attacking kicks per game.
In conclusion, the best place to take an attacking kick is a fluid concept, dependent on team selections, structures, and opponents. The numbers reveal a preference for kicks taken closer to the line, with a higher conversion rate. However, the intent of the kick and the abilities of the players also play a significant role. As the saying goes, analytics is about being less wrong, and in rugby league, that means understanding the nuances of the game and adapting to the ever-changing landscape.
